Connectivity in a heterogeneous lanscape: the genetics and population dynamics of the olympic marmot-project overview. Vzaimosvyazi v geterogennom landchafte: genetika i popoulïatsionnaïa dinamika olimpiïskogo sourka - obzor proekta. Connectivité dans un paysage hétérogène: génétique et dynamique des populations de la marmotte olympique - projet].

Résumé

The Olympic marmot (Marmota olympus) project, currently in its fourth year, is a large-scale study of the demographics, genetics, and distribution of one of the world's rarest marmots. The few thousand Olympic marmots are found almost exclusively within Olympic National Park (ONP). Project objectives are: 1) to develop and apply a new approach for quantifying the role that landscape plays in controlling movement among discrete local populations; 2) to determine the extent and causes of recent declines in Olympic marmots and 3) to develop a long-term, cost-effective monitoring, program for this popular species. An additional benefit is the establishment of a monitored population of a marmot in the Caligata clade. To accomplish objective 1, we are combining demographic, genetic and modeling approaches to identify landscape features that influence connectivity. Specifically, we are using a GIS-based habitat model to locate populations, collecting DNA to provide estimates of gene flow between numerous pairs of local populations, estimating demographic rates froma subset of these populations, and modeling multiple hypotheses representing movement through the landscape in a spatially-explicit, individually-based simulation model of marmot population dynamics. Outputs from different reaIizations of this simulation model, with different underlying dispersaI models, will be compared to observed genetic patterns to identify the most parsimonious model for movement across the landscape. To accomplish objective 2, we are supplementing data collected for objective I with resurveys of historic colonies and behavioraI observations. We are using these data to evaluate the severity of the declines and to test hypotheses explaining the declines. These include changes in predation pressure, climate change, human disturbance, disease, and inbreeding. Finally, we are collaborating with ONP to develop a monitoring and management program based on current and future distribution, demographics, and landscape use. A requirement is that monitoring can be carried out primarily by volunteers.